I remember sitting in my living room during the 2019 NBA season, watching the playoffs unfold with that familiar mix of excitement and skepticism. As someone who's followed basketball for over a decade, I've learned that championship odds can be as unpredictable as a buzzer-beater three-pointer. The Toronto Raptors entered the playoffs with what many considered longshot odds - around +1000 to win it all according to most sportsbooks. That's roughly a 9% implied probability, which felt about right given they had to potentially face both the Bucks and Warriors.
What fascinates me about championship odds is how they reflect not just team quality, but narrative and momentum. The Warriors, for instance, started the season at around -150 favorites, which translates to about 60% probability. Those numbers shifted dramatically when Kevin Durant went down with his calf injury during the playoffs. I recall thinking at the time that the oddsmakers were overreacting - until I saw how much it actually impacted their gameplay.
The Raptors' journey reminds me of that incredible Iran vs Chinese Taipei game I watched during the Asian Games. Amini absolutely dominated with 30 points and 11 rebounds, single-handedly igniting that 17-5 run in the fourth quarter that tied the game at 69 with three minutes remaining. That's the kind of individual brilliance that can completely defy probability models. Kawhi Leonard's performance against the 76ers, particularly that iconic Game 7 buzzer-beater, felt similarly improbable - the kind of moment that makes you question whether any statistical model can truly capture basketball's essence.
Looking back, the Bucks were actually the betting favorites heading into the Eastern Conference Finals at around -250. But Toronto's defensive schemes, particularly their wall defense against Giannis, proved more effective than anyone predicted. I've always believed defense wins championships, and Toronto's ability to adapt their strategy game-to-game demonstrated why pre-season odds often fail to account for coaching adjustments.
The Warriors' injury situation created one of the most dramatic probability shifts I've seen in recent years. When Durant went down, their championship odds dropped from about -350 to nearly even money. Then when Klay Thompson suffered his ACL tear in Game 6, the Raptors became overwhelming favorites at around -800. These rapid fluctuations show how fragile championship aspirations can be - one awkward landing can completely rewrite the narrative.
What many casual fans don't realize is how much these odds reflect public betting patterns rather than pure basketball analysis. The Lakers, for instance, maintained surprisingly good odds throughout the season despite missing the playoffs, largely because of LeBron James' presence and the public money he attracts. As someone who's placed a few bets over the years, I've learned to look for value where the public perception diverges from actual team quality.
The Raptors ultimately winning at those initial +1000 odds represents one of the better value picks in recent memory. If you'd put $100 on them preseason, you'd have walked away with $1,000 - not bad for a team many considered secondary contenders. Compare that to the Warriors' preseason odds of around -150, where you'd need to risk $150 just to win $100. The risk-reward calculus tells you everything about how the basketball world viewed their respective chances.
Basketball will always have that element of unpredictability that makes both watching and analyzing so compelling. The 2019 season taught me that while odds can inform our understanding, they can't capture the human element - the Amini-style performances, the strategic adjustments, the emotional momentum swings that define championship runs. That's why I still get chills thinking about Kawhi's shot bouncing four times on the rim before falling through - no probability model could have predicted that moment, yet it ultimately decided everything.